CEOs - How Will Kenya Possibly Be Like in Five Years Time?

It is the 6th of September 2020 at 9:57 AM, and 7 months into the Covid-19 pandemic. What will the 6th of September 2025 at 9:57 AM look like in selected aspects of our economy?

Let us put aside the government's well-meant Big Hairy Audacious Goals -BHAGS because we have repeatedly seen our country's prayers and plans get answered or executed in other countries that came over, dared to take copies of our policy papers, and acted on them clinically, whilst the originals remained on our shelves unattended to. In many aspects, we are chasing after the future that their citizens presently enjoy.

My disclaimer here too is that this is not the government's position as I don't have any capacity to do so. These are just my unsolicited projections of the future. And moving forward, please embrace JF Kennedy's message of: "ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." JFK went further to add: "Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger men." Are you now getting it? Or is it getting to you?

So this is how I see it.

Let us begin with education. In five years time, if things don't change, we shall have only 20 functional universities out of the 74 that we have today. Universities are meant to lead in all research fields and bring forth new knowledge and ways of existing beyond the next 20 or more years. Their work is meant to uplift the lives of communities around them. But in Kenya, they are union-driven and those leaders that teach the least desirable subjects now and in 5 years time, are the agenda drivers and I am not talking about the Vice-Chancellors but the noisemakers within their operating environments. The world will have better offerings and in a digital marketplace, people will vote with their gadgets and enrol into suitable programs both in content and cost.

Self-taught people will be more acceptable and will compete for the same places with regular college graduates as is happening now within the big tech companies globally. Courses offered on the internet are now gaining wide acceptance as the functional equivalents of 4-year degree programs when a certain number of them are clustered together. Random street experiences have birthed a formidable force and we are keenly watching. The University of Hard Knocks - UHK has come a long way and has brought on the fight to the doorsteps of the book smart world. It will forcibly knockout the less suitable alternatives in our colleges. Many will scramble to join the UHK alumni association when it is fully mainstreamed into our world. It will be a source of pride centred around self-determination.

Technology, will make it possible for us to choose and stick with the best instructors across geographies and just like in the fields of medicine and engineering where people go out of their way for good products and services, parents will stick to the best possible alternatives for their kids. Unfortunately, this will render several teachers, lecturers and school buildings unsuitable for their presently stated purposes. Those who will survive must be ahead of the steep learning curve. Communication technologies will minimise on face-to-face contact between parents and teachers. This will drastically reduce or eliminate any anchors of emotional attachment to teachers and thus make it easier for them to make hard decisions concerning service providers who are not up to the mark.

The 2019 census revealed that we were 47 million people living in Kenya. At an increasing rate of just over a million annually, we shall range between 55 - 59 million people in Kenya. More mouths to feed makes it a big win for agriculture. In five years time, farmers shall be amongst the richest people in Kenya as more knowledgable people join the practice. Improved technologies around propagation, post-harvest practices and marketing will have a huge compounding effect on earnings. Twiga Foods is a company to watch in this space. The Covid-19 pandemic has made us all realise that we need a second income as gainful employment can cease at any moment. So CPA-Ks, Lawyers, Engineers, et al, shall deepen their engagement in agriculture. Please start with online agriculture courses.

Against all the predictions, the oil sector will be much bigger than it is today. Everyone believes that clean energy will take over on our roads but the government, on our behalf, won't make it a walk in the park for renewable energy-based automobile inclined enthusiasts. The oil sector provides the government with money to finance its daily operations. When an oil ship docks at the port of Mombasa, all government duties and taxes must be settled upfront before the product is released to the importer. With no readily available tax-generating substitutes within sight, then oil will continue to rule. Even the savings made if everyone converted to LPG were to be considered, the increased number of vehicles then will make up for the lost revenue. The exception here is if the government embraces a 100% Work From Home - WFH policy, fully automates service provision, and releases all the excess infrastructure to private hands for hire, then we might have a chance at reducing our operating costs. But bureaucracy loves power and real power is exercised when people report physically into offices. Power is costing you big time. If the traditional government offices are vacated and are allowed to Rest In Peace, save for essential services offering facilities, then people shall work more productively in peace. But governments work differently and our long term debts must be paid from defined sources already known today such as oil taxes.

Ever wondered why the chaotic matatu industry has prevailed for so long besides the active cartels' agendas? In the Kenya Bus Service -KBS era that we talk of with nostalgia, everyone else was happy and organised around clear travel times but it offered no better solutions on increasing the tax revenue. You see, every matatu fuels up every day and as independent operators, they consume more fuel daily than would have been the case, had the dominant KBS been on the roads as before. So could the mayhem be a silent strategy of thriving in chaos profitably for Serikali? I don't know but conventional wisdom has it that when you want to know how any government around the world operates, you study the behaviour of its public transport ecosystem. It separates the governments that can work with limited supervision from those that may benefit immensely and repeatedly from corrective mass action.

With a better infrastructural framework supporting transport, internet connectivity, and more, Kenyans will increasingly live further away from major towns comfortably. With Zoom based meetings now the norm in schools and the workplace, people won't wish to lead an intrusive lifestyle in crowded places when ready alternatives abound. This is the time to buy land or a home up to 30 Kilometers away from major towns. Those now living upcountry, are already in the right place. Don't come to town looking for a modern lifestyle, it is quickly headed your way.

If you are not certainly a corporate-world type modelled middleman, you must start growing faster or leave the space altogether because technology-supported channels will make service delivery move back and forth between a consumer's smartphone and the provider's front and back-office operations without any need for small-time intermediary channels. The efficiencies and savings that accrue in the process will render any previous alternatives as very costly. Aggregators such as banks, telcos and major stores in the case of leveraged distribution services shall make it very hard for the lone agent. For such situations, personal touch will be replaced by the client's touch-screen activities when communicating directly with providers.

Banks and insurance companies will reduce in number but increase in size through consolidation and will be well geared to take up bigger risks and hopefully, in a much bigger economy in 2025. Despite their bigger sizes, they will employ fewer people owing to the effects of the 4th industrial revolution. Increased use of continuously converging technologies shall have an inversely proportional relationship to headcount. By then, most financial principles shall be coded in algorithms that will enhance consumer experiences in the choices that they make at the tap of their smart screens. Even if experienced bankers and insurers won't have present-day type jobs, the country, will in this resultant situation get blessed with a huge pool of knowledge porters to support the overall financial system in different roles. Offering financial literacy a.k.a, 'commercial awareness' in banking lingo will be a big opportunity for those leaving service. We are now in the initial throes of the knowledge economy. And the pains are blessings in disguise. In such an economy, knowledgeable people will be at the top of the economic food chain so take your rightful seat now, your present employer won't tell you anything about this early bird secret.

With a loss of the jobs as we know them today, surely, something has to give. Most people must now incorporate companies through which, they will provide services to bigger organisations and speciality clients. It is no longer about having a side hustle but about having something by your side all the time as the new normal is now dictating to us all the rules of engagement. So go online now to the E-citizen portal and commence with registration pronto. It is now a DIY service with no paid legal assistance needed.

Legal services shall be required in varying proportions to your adaptability. If you are not agile enough, then you will need lawyers for all your legal challenges, and they will cost you more. By 2025, many legal services will be offered via digitised algorithms that will just require you to fill in the blank spaces from the comfort of your gadget. The lawyer who is still virtual-world resistant shall painfully watch his or her world shrink rapidly. You will know lawyers more by the technological adaptability of their clients than by their own traditional legal prowess. Operationally, are they paper-based or seamlessly paperless? Even court sessions are happening on digital platforms as one Judge told me: "I was in my house today, the Lawyer was at his Nairobi home, the accused was in Kodiaga Prison in Kisumu and only the clerk and prosecutor were physically present at the High Court in Nairobi. Yet, I heard and ruled on the case without burning fuel."

With 5G or better technologies in use by then, only the best in the world shall survive as this will make the world an enhanced realtime zone on practically everything save for the basic needs that require a physical experience such as eating, bathing and dressing. If possible, and at best, slow adapters may find it easier to create museums to curate the past work practices for a willing audience, after all, every past life's culture has its own icons, the real stuff of legend. The good news is that better technologies will also lower the thresholds for entry to several emergent business opportunities. So what it takes with one hand, it gives back with the other hand. And this time, it's only that one must be of the right frame of mind and possess fitting skills and knowledge to surmount the unknown future that lies ahead.

Nearly all industries shall be affected in ways that are not comforting in today's terms. So please smell the coffee.

By the way, are you ready to face 2025? Please answer the following questions to test your preparedness.

1. Are you eager or willing to keep learning and using new technologies?

2. Are you ready to find a totally new thing to do even if you have no experience at it?

3. Are you willing to accept reverse-mentoring from younger colleagues, and are you even willing to have a much younger boss than you?

4. Are you willing to take up online based assignments at home from other geographies?

5. Can you work productively with limited supervision?

If you have answered "yes" to all the above, then practice the attitude of agility and begin to unlearn the old and learn the new and useful skills and knowledge continuously. And if you answered "no" to all or some of them, please find yourself an agile mentor. It is never the strongest that survive change. It is always the most adaptable to the situation that will carry the day. We are increasingly finding ourselves in a world that is ever becoming a leaner meaner machine that is exerting new demands on us all the time, and we must thrive. Please get this right, yesterday's wild lion is today's domestic cat. It counts in the household budget. It now eats and shelters in much better conditions with plenty of energy reserves for playtime. What are you?